Latin America

With the reduction of the demand caused by the crisis, we can estimate that the average export level should be placed in around nine hundred thousand barrels per day (0. 9 MM) and the price average could fall to around fifty dollars ($50 per barrel). If this year we received seventeen hundred million dollars ($117 MM) newspapers (1, 3 MM x 90) and with the new conditions would receive only forty five million dollars ($45 MM) newspapers (0, 9 MM x 50), obviously that would have a deficit of seventy-two million dollars ($72 MM) journals. And this deficit that I’ve calculated refers only to USA; It would have to estimate a similar amount for exports that are made to other countries which, according to the Government, is a volume equal. This has to be covered, for which the Government can reduce spending or raise taxes. I believe that we will see an increase in VAT, the reappearance of the bank debit (IDB) tax or the tax on financial transactions (ITF), and the reactivation of the projects of the tax law for luxury consumption and Tax Act to the heritage of natural persons. For his part, Professor Moises Mata thereon argues, to take into account that the problem for Latin America would come due to the loss of value in its commodity futures markets.

While further lowering the price of deliveries to future of raw materials, retail will be the relationship reserves international debt, so it would increase the financial exposure of insolvency in Latin America. Latin American economies, Argentina seems to be the most exposed. The Argentine Government recently announced the nationalization of private retirement funds, perhaps preventing a new default (cessation of payments). The Venezuelan economy would be affected, in the sense of the loss of value in the futures market of raw materials, which translates into the reduction of the price of deliveries at future of barrel of oil in the Venezuelan case.